The Year in Preview
Here we are: the new year ist already two weeks old, and the German political scene finds itself already in full swing.
A president under pressure; a long-term political party, part and parcel of Chancellor Merkel’s governing center-right coalition, under threat of electoral annihilation; an EU sovereign debt crisis without end.
1) Will German president Christian Wulff survive the ongoing public onslaught over his private home financing, coupled with angry phone calls to the editor of Germany’s powerful daily tabloid BILD? So far he has shown Thatcherite resolve to withstand all accusations leveled against him, almost all dating back to his time as chief executive of the state of Lower Saxony. Except for a few backbenchers, he can still count on the support of the governing coalition which elected him in the first place after the abrupt resignation of his predicessor Horst Koehler in Juni 201o. But for how long before the calls for an “end of the affair”, i. e. resignation, will become deafening, when the headlines just do not vanish? Public opinion looks somewhat mixed, though a majority wants him to serve out his term until June 2015.
2) The Free Democratic Party, longtime stalwart of the center of German politics bewteen Social and Christian Democrats, is teethering on the brink of destruction – if we do believe national poll after national poll, which shows them just above the zero graph. Having failed to qualify for a single seat in a number of state legislative races since their triumphant victory at the federal poll in September 2009, they will be facing voters in northern Schleswig-Holstein, between North and Baltic Sea, on May 6. Add to that lingering questions about the ability of their party leadership, led by Federal Minister of Economic Affairs Philipp Roesler, to sort things out for the “German (free-market) liberals” since he succeeded hapless predicessor Guido Westerwelle in May 2011, the future does indeed look pretty grim.
3) O, the €uro – or rather: the ongoing sovereign debt crisis of several €urozone member states wil continue to rattle financial markets worldwide, as well as the German polity, of course. German €uro sceptics (yes, they do exist!) felt emboldened by Standard & Poor’s decision the other day to downgrade nine €uro countries, including “la République Francaise”. Why continue to pay for others with German taxpayer’s money?, they will continue to ask. Thus they’ll press their case against what they perceive as a betrayal of the fundamental principle of postwar German monetary policymaking, i. e. never ever to effectively “print money” to smooth over structural imbalances in national economies. Chancellor Merkel will have little choice but continue making use of all of her considerable instincts and capabilities to navigate as well as she her government have, imho, so far through all those treacherously shallow financial, economic and political waters.
O.k., then: To be continued!
PartyPositioning on Europe
As German Chancellor Merkel is both lauded and pilloried for her, seemingly, 24/7 quest saving the €uro (which actually obfuscates the reality of a massive sovereign debt crisis in several €urozone member states), find out here what her party, the Christian Democrats, passes as their European platform at last month’s federal party convention in Leipzig.
The Day After
August 14, 1961: Day 1 after construction of the Berlin Wall began.
Latest research concludes at least 136 people were killed during the 28 years of the Wall’s existence, from August 1961 till November 9, 1989; most of them tried to flee the “Worker’s Paradise”, some died while helping others to escape, some border guards from the East found their death as well as innocent bystanders.
From X to Y
This food for thought on America’s role in global affairs, courtesy of Fareed Zakaria GPS.
A View from abroad
Highly recommended: This in-depth analysis of the recent German election results and their larger meaning, in particular for the Free Democrats soon-to-be led by Health Minister Philipp Rösler.
Guido won’t run again!
It’s over: German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle won’t run for another term as FDP party leader at their national conference in Rostock this May, he announced tonight. In the end, his decision seemed inevitable: For days, his leadership had been very publicly questioned by more and more senior party figures both nationally as well as from various state party committees. Thus last week’s devastating losses in two major state legislative elections in Rhineland-Palatinate, where the FDP didn’t even qualify to gain any legislative seat at all, and in Baden-Wuerttemberg, where they just barely escaped that same fate but lost their center-right coalition majority with the Christian Democrats, claimed their first big political victim.
Westerwelle had been a fixture of German politics for more than a decade now. His rather abrasive style served him well during long opposition years between 2001, when he assumed his party’s leadership at age 39, and 2009, when he could legitimately boast about his FDP’s record-breaking 14% of the national vote at the Sept. 27 federal election, getting 95 MPs elected to the Bundestag!
Alas, that moment – it now turns out – proved to be the climax of his career as a major player in German domestic politics. A number of both political as well as personal missteps after assuming the office of Foreign Minister and No. 2 in Chancellor Merkel’s second cabinet, added by promises of massive tax cuts not kept (or at least not kept as much as advertised during the 2009 federal campaign) accelerated his partisan downfall month after month throughout the last twelve months.
What’s next for him? He clearly wants to stay on as Germany’s chief diplomat, a role he is struggling to adjust to following his decade-long experience being both the polarizing and simultaneously quite entertaining champion of ‘organized political liberalism’ German-style. His chances of hanging on look good, as least for the time being.
What’s next for his party? As of this writing, the search for a successor is in full gear. Federal Health Minister Philipp Roesler, just 38 years of age, and FDP secretary general Christian Lindner, even younger at 32, are mentioned most often by the Berlin MSM.
Meanwhile…..in Libya
I guess “Colonel” Muammar al-Ghadafi is quite happy about what’s happening in the Far East right now. Who’s still paying attention while he is busy crushing a rebellion against his rule?
Grading the Prez
A refreshingly sober, accurate analysis, IMHO, of the Obama Administration’s handling of The Last Days of the Pharao.
Twilight of the Pharao
Fareed Zakaria argues that Egypt is NOT Iran.
Plus: An interesting perspective on the possible ramifications of developments in Egypt for Israel, courtesy of Josh Marshall @ TPM.
Great food for thought.
