The Year in Preview
Here we are: the new year ist already two weeks old, and the German political scene finds itself already in full swing.
A president under pressure; a long-term political party, part and parcel of Chancellor Merkel’s governing center-right coalition, under threat of electoral annihilation; an EU sovereign debt crisis without end.
1) Will German president Christian Wulff survive the ongoing public onslaught over his private home financing, coupled with angry phone calls to the editor of Germany’s powerful daily tabloid BILD? So far he has shown Thatcherite resolve to withstand all accusations leveled against him, almost all dating back to his time as chief executive of the state of Lower Saxony. Except for a few backbenchers, he can still count on the support of the governing coalition which elected him in the first place after the abrupt resignation of his predicessor Horst Koehler in Juni 201o. But for how long before the calls for an “end of the affair”, i. e. resignation, will become deafening, when the headlines just do not vanish? Public opinion looks somewhat mixed, though a majority wants him to serve out his term until June 2015.
2) The Free Democratic Party, longtime stalwart of the center of German politics bewteen Social and Christian Democrats, is teethering on the brink of destruction – if we do believe national poll after national poll, which shows them just above the zero graph. Having failed to qualify for a single seat in a number of state legislative races since their triumphant victory at the federal poll in September 2009, they will be facing voters in northern Schleswig-Holstein, between North and Baltic Sea, on May 6. Add to that lingering questions about the ability of their party leadership, led by Federal Minister of Economic Affairs Philipp Roesler, to sort things out for the “German (free-market) liberals” since he succeeded hapless predicessor Guido Westerwelle in May 2011, the future does indeed look pretty grim.
3) O, the €uro – or rather: the ongoing sovereign debt crisis of several €urozone member states wil continue to rattle financial markets worldwide, as well as the German polity, of course. German €uro sceptics (yes, they do exist!) felt emboldened by Standard & Poor’s decision the other day to downgrade nine €uro countries, including “la République Francaise”. Why continue to pay for others with German taxpayer’s money?, they will continue to ask. Thus they’ll press their case against what they perceive as a betrayal of the fundamental principle of postwar German monetary policymaking, i. e. never ever to effectively “print money” to smooth over structural imbalances in national economies. Chancellor Merkel will have little choice but continue making use of all of her considerable instincts and capabilities to navigate as well as she her government have, imho, so far through all those treacherously shallow financial, economic and political waters.
O.k., then: To be continued!
